Study of Factors Affecting Longevity and Survival of Iranian Guilan Sheep Using Linear and Non-Linear Models

The objective of this study was to evaluate non-genetic factors affecting longevity and survival of Guilan sheep from birth to yearling. Longevity and survival records of 41037 lambs born from 496 rams and 10256 ewes of Guilan sheep were analyzed using linear and Weibull models. Results indicated that the overall mean of longevity was 1260.84 days. The fixed effects of flock, dam age, sex, year and month of birth and interaction between dam age-sex had significant effects on longevity (P0.05). Male lambs had lower survival and greater hazard ratio compared with female lambs. Lambs which born in recent years and last months of year had greater hazard ratios and lower survival in the period from birth to 2-months and birth to yearling. Lambs which born in early months of year had greater survival and lower hazard ratio than those birth to 3, 6 and 9 months of age. Although twin lambs had lower survival and greater hazard from birth to 2 and 3 months of age periods, difference of single and twin lambs was not significant in other time periods. In conclusion, linear and non-linear models can be used to study the survival of lambs and it’s possible to improve this important item through modifying non-genetic factors.